Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Change in Wulate County: Investigation and Prediction

Based on the historical documents of Wulate County from 1957 to 2006,we analyzed the features and status of the cultivated land,and found that almost no more arable land could be found in the area and the conflict between man and land had been increasingly apparent.Principal component analysis was conducted to identify social economic factors influencing cultivated land changes.The results show that the growth of population along with economic development,and the modernization level of cultivation are the two major driving forces.Furthermore,the GM(1,1) model was applied to predict cultivated land area and gross population of Wulate County in 2010,2015 and 2020,respectively.The prediction indicates a continuously increasing population companying by a continuously reducing area of cultivated land,implying a more severe conflict between man and land.The findings could provide scientific bases for protecting and urging sustainable usage of cultivated land in this region.