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Empirical Test on Monetary Neutrality in China

Shan Gao

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Abstract

ARIMA model and two-stage OLS method are employed to test impact of expected money supply and non-expected money supply on GDP from 1994 in China.The empirical results show both expected money aggregate and unexpected money aggregate have significant effects on output in the short run and non-expected money aggregate have more significant impact on output.In the long run,the positive and negative effects of expected monetary and non-expected money on output are offset.Monetary policy in China shows neutral in the long-term.

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What this paper is about

ARIMA model and two-stage OLS method are employed to test impact of expected money supply and non-expected money supply on GDP from 1994 in China.The empirical results show both expected money aggregate and unexpected money aggregate have significant effects on output in the short run and non-expected money aggregate have more significant impact on output.In the long run,the positive and negative effects of expected monetary and non-expected money on output are offset.Monetary policy in China shows neutral in the long-term.

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Available abstract

ARIMA model and two-stage OLS method are employed to test impact of expected money supply and non-expected money supply on GDP from 1994 in China.The empirical results show both expected money aggregate and unexpected money aggregate have significant effects on output in the short run and non-expected money aggregate have more significant impact on output.In the long run,the positive and negative effects of expected monetary and non-expected money on output are offset.Monetary policy in China shows neutral in the long-term.

Key concepts: Economics, Money supply, Monetary economics, Monetary policy, China, Econometrics, Money measurement concept, Velocity of money

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