Application of Model for End-stage Liver Disease in Assessing the Prognosis of the Patients with Chronic Severe Hepatitis

Objective To study the clincal pratical use of the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) and assess its validity in predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis.Methods 125 patients with chronic severe hepatitis were graded with MELD formula.The motality rates was observed within three months.The validity of MELD was determined and the optimal cut-off values of the model to discriminate between deceased and surviving patients were calculated by ROC curves and area under the curve.Results 81 patients(64.8%) died within 3 month.MELD score of non-survivors(34.6±10.5) was higher than that of survivors(23.5±5.8) significantly(P0.001).The mortality rates of patients whose MELD20,20≤MELD30,30≤MELD40 and MLED≥40 were 14.3%,54.9%,79.5% and 95.2% respectively.The optimal cut-off values of MELD to predict the prognosis of patients was 26,whose c-statjstic,sensitivity,specificity,accuracy and were 0.802,80.2%,79.5% and 80.0% respectively.Conclusion The mortality of the patients increase with the increase of their MELD scores.The MELD can accurately predict the short-term prognisis of patients with chronic sever hepatitis.