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2014•Chinese Journal of Population Resources and EnvironmentRequires access

The Impact of Population Aging on Government Expenditure in Chongqing

Wu Jin

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Abstract

At present,population aging is more severe in Chongqing compared with other provinces in China. The ratio of 65 years olds has reached 12. 42% and old dependency ratio is 17. 36% which is higher than the average and clearly shows the aging status in Chongqing. To solve the problems brought by population aging,the Chongqing government has to spend more. In 2011,the old- age security expenditure took up 16. 3% of the total government expenditure. To learn more about the aging status in Chongqing and its fiscal burden,this paper used Cpps model to forecast the possible aging ratio in Chongqing and used stata 11 to quantitatively analysis the effect of population aging on government expenditure. The results shows that the old dependency ratio of Chongqing will reach 30% till 2030 and with 1% rise,the government expenditure will rise around 40%.

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What this paper is about

At present,population aging is more severe in Chongqing compared with other provinces in China. The ratio of 65 years olds has reached 12. 42% and old dependency ratio is 17. 36% which is higher than the average and clearly shows the aging status in Chongqing. To solve the problems brought by population aging,the Chongqing government has to spend more. In 2011,the old- age security expenditure took up 16. 3% of the total government expenditure. To learn more about the aging status in Chongqing and its fiscal burden,this paper used Cpps model to forecast the possible aging ratio in Chongqing and used stata 11 to quantitatively analysis the effect of population aging on government expenditure. The results shows that the old dependency ratio of Chongqing will reach 30% till 2030 and with 1% rise,the government expenditure will rise around 40%.

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Available abstract

At present,population aging is more severe in Chongqing compared with other provinces in China. The ratio of 65 years olds has reached 12. 42% and old dependency ratio is 17. 36% which is higher than the average and clearly shows the aging status in Chongqing. To solve the problems brought by population aging,the Chongqing government has to spend more. In 2011,the old- age security expenditure took up 16. 3% of the total government expenditure. To learn more about the aging status in Chongqing and its fiscal burden,this paper used Cpps model to forecast the possible aging ratio in Chongqing and used stata 11 to quantitatively analysis the effect of population aging on government expenditure. The results shows that the old dependency ratio of Chongqing will reach 30% till 2030 and with 1% rise,the government expenditure will rise around 40%.

Key concepts: Dependency ratio, Population ageing, Government expenditure, Government (linguistics), China, Population, Dependency (UML), Economics

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