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On China Inflation Rate Forecasts by the Phillips Curve Model

Shihui Liu

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Abstract

Based on the Phillips curve theory of the relationship between output gap and inflation rate,the potential output and output gap has been estimated by Kalman filtering methods.After verified the causality relationship between output gap and inflation rate by Granger causality test,the Philips curve of output gap has been designed to forecast inflation rate.Empirical analysis shows that the curve works and it maybe can give some ideas to our monetary policy making.

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What this paper is about

Based on the Phillips curve theory of the relationship between output gap and inflation rate,the potential output and output gap has been estimated by Kalman filtering methods.After verified the causality relationship between output gap and inflation rate by Granger causality test,the Philips curve of output gap has been designed to forecast inflation rate.Empirical analysis shows that the curve works and it maybe can give some ideas to our monetary policy making.

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Available abstract

Based on the Phillips curve theory of the relationship between output gap and inflation rate,the potential output and output gap has been estimated by Kalman filtering methods.After verified the causality relationship between output gap and inflation rate by Granger causality test,the Philips curve of output gap has been designed to forecast inflation rate.Empirical analysis shows that the curve works and it maybe can give some ideas to our monetary policy making.

Key concepts: Phillips curve, Output gap, Economics, Inflation (cosmology), Causality (physics), Granger causality, Econometrics, Monetary policy

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