Forecast of total social retail sales of consumption goods in Fujian Province

With a monthly data sample of total social retail sales of consumer goods in Fujian,from January 2004 to December 2010,this paper respectively uses seasonal model of time series and ARIMA model to predict monthly data of total social retail sales of consumer goods in 2011,then builds combined forecast model to forecast total social retail sales of consumption goods in every month of 2011 in Fujian Province.The forecasting results play an important role in guiding consumption,and the model establishing process and methods could provide references for other related researches.