Analysis on Fluctuation in Production and Yield of Rice and Its Causes in Hubei Province in Recent 20 Years

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the fluctuation in production and yield of rice and its causes in Hubei Province in recent 20 years,to find the technological approaches for stable and high output of rice continuously.[Methods] Using agricultural basic statistical data in Hubei Province,and combining with related meteorological data and production agricultural condition analysis data,characteristics of the changes of rice and its total production,per unit yield and sowing area of different seasons during 1990-2009 and their causes were analyzed generally.[Result] In recent 20 years,total production of rice in Hubei decreased greatly with violent fluctuation and has just returned to a steady state in the recent years.On the other hand,rice yield per unit area showed a slightly increase over the same period,the mid-seasonal rice has been increased,while the early-seasonal rice and the late-seasonal rice decreased.The early-seasonal rice has been fluctuated more and with greater ranges than the mid-seasonal rice and the late-seasonal rice.Rice area sharply decreased from the end of 1990s,at the same time,the area of the early-seasonal rice and the late-seasonal rice decreased,on the contrary,the mid-seasonal rice increased its area,until a steady balance in area between mid-seasonal rice and early-and-late-seasonal rice in recent years.Rice production decrease is parallel to the decrease in rice area,while the yield fluctuation is due to climatic factors,rice growing techniques and social factors.The reason for sharp decrease in rice area is likely to be in a down of comparative benefit for rice growing,agricultural policies and land-use change;the changes of rice areas in different seasons are related to production security,effective labor and agricultural polices.[Conclusion] Keeping a steady rice area is the crucial measure to steady rice production,while to mitigate yield fluctuation,infra-construction for rice lands,breeding for more productive varieties under stress conditions and developing stress-proof growing techniques are of importance.