Real Estate Pricing Under Uncertainty:A Stochastic Model and Empirical Analysis

This paper,by formulating a stochastic model,investigates the factors affecting real estate pricing under uncertainty.Theoretically and empirically,real estate prices are affected by many factors such as mortgage quotas,interest rates and residential wealth.This paper tests the effects of rising interest rates on Chinese real estate market.The conclusion is that interest rates have statistical,but not economic significance on real estate prices.Therefore,raising interest rates will not cool down the real estate market in the short run.Instead,real estate price shocks themselves are the leading factor for the jump of real estate prices,mainly through the channel of residents' adaptive expectations on real estate prices.Residential income has some but small effects on real estate price jumps.