CGE simulation of fuel oil tax impact on national economy and transportation

In order to simulate the influences of fuel oil tax reform on national economy and transportation industry,the fuel-transportation-economy TSA-CGE model was built based on transportation satellite account framework,and the fuel-transportation-economy system was completely described by using 8 modules such as production,price conduction,transportation and fuel,income and expense,trade,public welfare,social investment,and general equilibrium.A fuel oil tax program was set,which fuel consumption tax rate rised from 5% to 20%,and the influences of the program on macro-economy and transportation were simulated.Simulation result shows that fuel oil tax program can promote the developments of investment,residents' incomes,government savings,but have negative impact on economic aggregate growth,import and export.The program can cause the increases of rail transport,total urban traffic output,lead to the declines of other transport outputs,and the overall output prices of transport modes show a rising trend.The program can promote the decrease of domestic oil product demand,and improve the use efficiency of oil.