Analysis on the Fluctuation of Oil Price Before and After Supply Interruption

This paper first analyses the facts that the fluctuation of oil price before and after major oil supply disruptions caused by emergencies depends on: the scale of the supply disruptions,recovery time of direct supply disruptions,the possibility of new supply disruption caused by other events which aroused by the emergency,the attitude that OPEC(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) took to supply interruption,and the intervention of emergencies of the international community.This paper goes on to look at that OPEC will make pumping decision to respond to all kinds of supply disruptions,and the total output will hit or even surpass the total output before the emergency;the oil price at the end of the war or the strike of oil-producing countries is basically correspond to the price before the emergency,and the effect of war and strike on the oil price is over;the oil price at the end of revolution is higher than the price before the revolution,and the revolution still has influence on the oil price.