Self-organized criticality and power system blackouts prediction

Based on the study of power system self-organized criticality(SOC) model and the power-law of the power system blackouts,the theoretical meaning of SOC is discussed from the physics standpoint.The SOC model provides reasonable theroritical basis to future accidents prediction by using limited history data in power system blackout risk analysis.The focus of power system SOC model is not a certain blackout,but accident group consists of many blackouts.The key point of power system SOC model is trying to explain the universal rules of accident group,not clarifying the rule of a specific blackout.Although SOC is a simple model,it plays an important role in not only reminding the possibility of the blackouts prediction from the physics standpoint,but also revealing the value of understanding the complex blackouts phenomenon through simple physic model.