SCENARIO ANALYSES ON THE CHANGES OF FUTURE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA

Based on the results simulated by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies),which is developed in the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation under SRES B2 scenario in South China during 2071～2100 are analyzed.It is shown that,compared to baseline(1961～1990),surface air temperature in 2071～2100 would increase by 2～4 ℃,precipitation in summer would increase in the north part to 22 °N,while the precipitation in winter would decrease in the whole areas of South China.The climate trend of the surface air temperature would be positive,however the climate trend of the precipitation would be negative,the occurrence frequency of extremely high temperature events and extremely heavy precipitation events would increase.