Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Dynamic Economics Model

Due to the influence of various factors on electricity price in electricity market,it is hardly to improve the forecasting accuracy of short-term electricity price by single variable time series method.To solve this problem,the authors propose an approach to forecast short-term electricity price by dynamic economics method in time series model.Firstly,the auto-regressive distributed lag models(ADLM) of electricity price and quantity are built;then the time series data of electricity price and quantity are preprocessed;after the test of stationary and cointegration,an error correction model is established;finally the parameters of the model are evaluated by Eviews 5.0.The short-term electricity prices of Australia NSW electricity market are forecasted by this model,and the results show that the proposed model can offer more accurate short-term electricity price.