Study on Macroeconomic Factors and RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation

Based on the co-integration test,error correction model and other econometric methods,this paper empirically studies the impact of several hot macroeconomic factors on the current RMB exchange rate.The empirical results show that there exists a long-term stable co-integration relationship among interest rate differential,inflation rate differential,increasing rate of foreign exchange reserve and appreciation ratio of RMB nominal exchange rate.In the long run,interest rate differential has the most important influence on the RMB exchange rate,whereas,in the short run,the major influencial factors are foreign exchange reserve and its own former-term information.