Epidemiology Characteristics of Measles before and after Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Attenuated Live Vaccine in Beijing in 2010

Objective To analyze the epidemiology characteristics of measles before and after measles attenuated live vaccine(MV) supplementary immunization activities(SIAs) in Beijing in 2010, evaluate the effectiveness of MV SIA and provide the basis for elimination of measles. Methods Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was developed for forecasting measles incidence in 2011. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on measles surveillance data during 2005-2011. Results Predicted measles incidence was 49.5/1,000,000 in 2011 before MV SIA. The measles incidence was 5/1,000,000 after MV SIA, descending 89.9% compared predicted incidence. MV SIA led to the sharp drop of the measles incidence among all age groups and flatted seasonal epidemic peak. The proportion of children of ≤4 years and adults of 15-39 years old were 37.8% and 53.1% after MV SIA. Conclusion MV SIA of 2010 in Beijing played a significant role for measles control. For further decreasing incidence of measles, we should strengthen routine immunization,improve timeliness of MV vaccination, and carry out SIA among the pre-school scattered children and adults.