PREDICTION ON CHANGE AND TREND OF DEATH RATE OF CANCERS IN RESIDLENTS OF ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

An analysis on the chang and trend of cancer death rates based on the data of disease surveillance was carried out in Zhejiang province. The results showed that the general death rate of cancers was increased in the end of 90's by 13.88% over the middle of 80' in Zhejiang province. In which, male was increased over 14.97% while the femal was increased over 11.73%, the death rates of lung cancer and liver cancer were increased by 76.8% and 20.21% respectively. The death rates of cevercal cancer and esophageal cancer were decreased by 42.1% and 37.17% respectively. The prediction of cancer death rates in 2000～2004 was showed that the stomachal, esophageal, colon and lung cancer will decreased gradually but the death rate of liver cancer will increase in urban areas while the lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach and colon cancer will increase gradually in rural areas. It was suggested that the priorities for cancer control were different between rural area and urban area, the study on risk factors of cancer needed to strengthen.