Is the Infrastructure Investment Still Driving the Economic Growth? A Division Panel Data Analysis based from 1995 to 2011

This paper built a model by using the panel data of different provinces and different industries from 1995 to 2011, and made a study on optimal scale of different industries investment and optimal order in infrastructures of China. From the optimal scale of investment, although the productive infrastructure investment led by government had been the optimal scale, the continuing invests still played a positive role in economical growth. The power and the water conservancy industry haven't get to the optimal scale yet, however the invest scale of the transportation industry have been more than the optimal size and the marginal output has been negative. From the investment gap and urgency, we should moderate increase the investment on the power and the water conservancy industry and lower the investment on the transportation industry. On the premise of maintaining the productive infrastructure investment stability, we should moderate increase the proportion of non- productive infrastructure investment, which could help to improve the overall investment efficiency.