Prediction of the Glacier System's Variation under Periodical Warming——Taking the Glacier System in Yangtze Valley as an Example

This article attempts to establish a mathematical model to simulate the glacier system response to periodical temperature increase,taking the Yangtze valley glacier system as an example.By using the mature glacier system change forecast model,the change of the glacier system under several kinds of possibility of temperature increasing is predicted.To test the periodical warming model,the linear warming model is used in the forecast too.The results show: First,the rising speed and the variation amplitude of the temperature obviously influence the glacier system's variation and survival,while the change period of temperature has less effect on the variation of the glacier system.And a suddenly temperature rising will shorten the glacier system's life more.Secondly,there are differences between the glacier system changes under different warming models.Under the periodic warming,the amount of glacier meltwater runoff change is quite sensitive to the warming;it means that the possibility of the extreme meltwater due to the extreme temperature may occur,which may influence the utilization of the glacier meltwater and cause the glacier hazards.Thirdly,a suddenly periodical warming leads the glacier system changing heavier much more than a gradually warming.