Impact of Agricultural Modernization,Population Growth,Trade Policies on the International Competitiveness of Agricultural Products——An Empirical Analysis Based on Co-integration and VEC Model

In recent years,agricultural trade deficit has caused widespread concern about the international competitiveness of China's agricultural products. Based on the data of Chinese and the world agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2010,with the guide of Michael Porter's Diamond model theory,the paper uses principal component analysis,co-integration and vector error correction model to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural modernization,population growth and trade policy on the international competitiveness of China's agricultural products. The results show that the slow progress of China's agricultural modernization,continued population growth and the unequal opening up of agricultural products have led to the decline in international competitiveness of China's agricultural products. Therefore,we should take full and flexible use of WTO rules to create a favorable international and domestic environment for the development of Chinese agriculture and the international competitiveness of agricultural products,meanwhile continue to adhere to the family planning and population control policy.