Forecast of China's Natural Gas Consumption Based on ARIMA Model

As a clean energy,natural gas has played an important role in optimizing China's energy consumption structure and the development of low-carbon economy.the prediction of the natural gas consumption can support the industry policy making and the development of the natural gas.We predicted China's natural gas consumption was predicted by ARIMA(1,1,5) model,the results showed that the growth rate of natural gas consumption will increase more quickly,in 2015,natural gas consumption will be twice as in 2012,and foreign dependence will reach 40%,so China should accelerate the development of unconventional gas and the natural gas infrastructure,at the same time,to accelerate the completion of natural gas price formation mechanism reform in order to control disorderly growth of natural gas consumption.