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2015•Jingji lilun yu jingji guanliRequires access

THE MEASURE OF THE OPTIMAL DEBT RATIO OF CHINA BASED ON THE FULL DIAMETER GOVERNMENT DEBT RATIOS DATA

Wang Li-yon

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Abstract

Taking thoroughly consideration of implicit and possible debt of central and local governments,this paper fully measures the scale of Chinese government's debt.Based on the actual debts data,the optimum debt level of Chinese governments is estimated.The results show that government debt has been increasing rapidly since 1998,and in 2009 the debt ratio reached 40.28%,which was the highest level ever.An inverted U-shaped curve relationship is presented between Chinese economic growth and government debt,and the optimum debt ratio is between 33.4% and 34.6%.The existing debt ratio was higher than the optimum debt ratio,which indicates that current government debt ratio is relatively higher.Finally,this paper gives some policy recommendations.

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What this paper is about

Taking thoroughly consideration of implicit and possible debt of central and local governments,this paper fully measures the scale of Chinese government's debt.Based on the actual debts data,the optimum debt level of Chinese governments is estimated.The results show that government debt has been increasing rapidly since 1998,and in 2009 the debt ratio reached 40.28%,which was the highest level ever.An inverted U-shaped curve relationship is presented between Chinese economic growth and government debt,and the optimum debt ratio is between 33.4% and 34.6%.The existing debt ratio was higher than the optimum debt ratio,which indicates that current government debt ratio is relatively higher.Finally,this paper gives some policy recommendations.

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Available abstract

Taking thoroughly consideration of implicit and possible debt of central and local governments,this paper fully measures the scale of Chinese government's debt.Based on the actual debts data,the optimum debt level of Chinese governments is estimated.The results show that government debt has been increasing rapidly since 1998,and in 2009 the debt ratio reached 40.28%,which was the highest level ever.An inverted U-shaped curve relationship is presented between Chinese economic growth and government debt,and the optimum debt ratio is between 33.4% and 34.6%.The existing debt ratio was higher than the optimum debt ratio,which indicates that current government debt ratio is relatively higher.Finally,this paper gives some policy recommendations.

Key concepts: Debt-to-GDP ratio, Debt ratio, Internal debt, Debt service ratio, Debt, Government debt, Debt levels and flows, External debt

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