Dynamic Reliability of Travel Time in Stochastic Supply

A road network system is essentially a random dynamical system.Classic reliability analysis assumes that the road network system occupies a long-term equilibrium,which excludes the dynamic reliability of the network system.Based on classic travel time reliability and explicit consideration of time dimension,a concept of travel time dynamic reliability was proposed,which was defined as the probability per day that the ratio of traveler’s actual travel time to forecasted travel time did not exceed an acceptable level.Considering the random variation of the network supply,and based on random dynamical traffic assignment model and Monte Carlo method,an approximate algorithm is established to estimate the travel time dynamic reliability of the road network.Finally,the proposed algorithm was tested on an example network.