A Study on Risk Premium of Chinese Agricultural Produce Futures and Instability of the Market——Based on a Dynamic Examination of Market Efficiency by M-V and CAPM

The market of agricultural produce futures is of premium of excessive risk,implying the market’s failure to timely discover and completely absorb the signals of affecting prices of futures. Because of effects of domestic currency market and foreign market of futures on market efficiency,Chinese market of agricultural produce futures works inefficiently,which results from the soar of increase ratio of agricultural loans and the intension of fluctuations of the indexes of CRB futures. The market risk,profits and efficiency of agricultural produce futures are closely associated with macro background. Malpractice or huge losses of micro organs are likely to lure the herding effect,that is,systematic effects on the market of futures. Thus providing loan support for the market of agricultural produce futures can produce some positive effects on improvement of capital flowing,varieties of futures can be increased to extend the room of money arrangement and statistic tenders cab be bettered to improve the market efficiency of futures. In this practice,the central bank should comprehensively utilize interests adjustment and amount means to lessen fluctuations in the currency market.