Study on evolution trend of Yangtze Estuary and exploration of its long-term regulation

The Yangtze Estuary is characterized by wide and multiple-stage bifurcated courses with densely distributed sand bars. Under the action of runoff, tide, wave, the river channel process becomes to be so complicated. With the rapid development of social economy in the estuary area, higher requirements for its comprehensive regulation, development and exploitation are proposed. This paper covers a systematic analysis of the estuary′s historical developing mode, forming of general regime as 3-level branching and 4-mouth into the sea and characteristics of recent river channel process. On such a basis, an analysis and forecast on its evolution trend of river channel is carried out. At the same time, an initial discussion on the direction of long-term regulation for the Yangtze Estuary is performed according to its natural evolution trend, and the demands of the development of socio-economy and the ecological protection in the area.