Probability Analysis of Induced Earthquake in ShangCun Reservoir

This paper described the conditions of reservoir-induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir,such as the geological background of the reservoir area,the tectonic stress field and seismic activity background.The possibility of reservoir induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir is analysed by using the methods of the reservoir-induced earthquake conditions analogy analysts and the probabilistic prediction.① According to the conditions of reservoir induced earthquake analogy,we believe that the probability of the ShangCun Reservoir inducing earthquake is very smaller.② Based on the probability prediction method and maximum induced earthquake estimate,reservoir induce earthquakes below the level of 4 may occur.The seismic intensity in the epicentral area may reach Ⅵ degree,but has not yet reached the local basic seismic intensity.The construction of the reservoir could not considered the influence of reservoir induced earthquake.