Case Study on Application of Multi-NWP Model Outputs and Physical Parameters in the Heavy Rain Forecast

Compared with the routine observations,several kinds of NWP products related to the circulation situation and precipitation forecast of the rain process on July 5,2008 in Shandong province were tested with the physical quantities field diagnostical analysis.The results show that the heavy rain area was closely related to the disposition of lots of physical quantities.The heavy rain area was on the path of convergence center and located between the convergence center of moisture flux and the center of lift movement.The moving direction of heavy rain was consistent with the major axis direction of water vapor flux center and Δθse(500-850) negative value center.The pumping of the upper air divergence at 200 hPa was more important to develop the lift movement than the low level convergence only.