The Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap——The empirical research based on data of Xinjiang from 1978 to 2007

An estimation of potential output and output gap was made by using two different approaches respectively.The results shows that:(1)Output gap presented classical business cycle character from 1978 to 2007;(2)The macroeconomic policies had significant effect on economy,and the mechanism of information transferred was improved in Xinjiang recently;(3)According to the potential output and output gap estimated,a deduction was arrived at that the average growth rate of potential output was 9.82% from 1978 to 2007.