Method for Early Warning of Heavy Passenger Flow at Transfer Station of Urban Rail Transit Network under Train Delay

Through analyzing the influence imposed on passengers' travel mode choice by train delay in urban rail transit system,the paper puts forward the judgment equation of influenced passenger and the calculation method of passenger flow in three different travel mode choices which include exiting to select normal bus transit,waiting until the delay is over and then traveling on the same path,and selecting the shortest alternate path in urban rail transit network.According to the calculation of the above,the paper obtains the passenger flow distribution in transfer stations under the influence of train delay and contrasts with that under regular operation.On the basis of that,the paper achieves the location of transfer stations suffer from potential heavy passenger flow and duration of potential heavy passenger flow in each transfer station and then gains the foundation of heavy passenger flow warning.The result can help promptly inform the train dispatching department and the involved transfer stations to handle the potential heavy passenger flow.