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A granger causality analysis on tourism and economic growth of Shaanxi

LI Tian-shun

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Abstract

Since reform and opening,Shaanxi Province gained rapid development in both tourism and economy.Based on relevant statistics data in 1978-2008,using Eviews6.0 software,the authors applied cointegration and Granger causality to test the relationship between tourism and economy,and establish a push and pull model which is about tourism and economic.The results showed that: ①there is cointegration between the development of tourism and the local economy in Shaanxi,that is,a long-term stable relationship exists among inbound tourism,domestic tourism and GDP;② inbound tourism and domestic tourism are the reasons of GDP growth that can promote the development of tourism in Shaanxi,and inbound tourism for promoting economic development in Shaanxi Province is better than that of domestic tourism;③ the gross national product increase is the reason of domestic tourism growth,not the reason for the growth of inbound tourism,local economic development stimulates the domestic tourism obviously.

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Since reform and opening,Shaanxi Province gained rapid development in both tourism and economy.Based on relevant statistics data in 1978-2008,using Eviews6.0 software,the authors applied cointegration and Granger causality to test the relationship between tourism and economy,and establish a push and pull model which is about tourism and economic.The results showed that: ①there is cointegration between the development of tourism and the local economy in Shaanxi,that is,a long-term stable relationship exists among inbound tourism,domestic tourism and GDP;② inbound tourism and domestic tourism are the reasons of GDP growth that can promote the development of tourism in Shaanxi,and inbound tourism for promoting economic development in Shaanxi Province is better than that of domestic tourism;③ the gross national product increase is the reason of domestic tourism growth,not the reason for the growth of inbound tourism,local economic development stimulates the domestic tourism obviously.

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Available abstract

Since reform and opening,Shaanxi Province gained rapid development in both tourism and economy.Based on relevant statistics data in 1978-2008,using Eviews6.0 software,the authors applied cointegration and Granger causality to test the relationship between tourism and economy,and establish a push and pull model which is about tourism and economic.The results showed that: ①there is cointegration between the development of tourism and the local economy in Shaanxi,that is,a long-term stable relationship exists among inbound tourism,domestic tourism and GDP;② inbound tourism and domestic tourism are the reasons of GDP growth that can promote the development of tourism in Shaanxi,and inbound tourism for promoting economic development in Shaanxi Province is better than that of domestic tourism;③ the gross national product increase is the reason of domestic tourism growth,not the reason for the growth of inbound tourism,local economic development stimulates the domestic tourism obviously.

Key concepts: Tourism, Cointegration, Granger causality, Gross domestic product, Economics, Domestic tourism, Economic geography, Economy

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