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2010•South-to-north Water Transfers and Water Science & TechnologyRequires access

Simulation and Forecast of Maximum Annual Water Level Based on Model of Average-Growing Function at Xiangtun Station

Henan Gu

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Abstract

The method of average-growing function was performed with maximum annual water level at Xiangtun station from the year of 1956 to 2005 to create 25 periodic functions. After filtering by stepwise regression factor method employed by SPSS software, the final 10 periodic functions were selected as the impact factors to predict and establish the optimal regression equation. The results showed that the model had a high precision to predict and simulate the non-extreme value. The result of extreme values had significantly improved compared with other models, however, which were still attributed to the main source of error.

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What this paper is about

The method of average-growing function was performed with maximum annual water level at Xiangtun station from the year of 1956 to 2005 to create 25 periodic functions. After filtering by stepwise regression factor method employed by SPSS software, the final 10 periodic functions were selected as the impact factors to predict and establish the optimal regression equation. The results showed that the model had a high precision to predict and simulate the non-extreme value. The result of extreme values had significantly improved compared with other models, however, which were still attributed to the main source of error.

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Available abstract

The method of average-growing function was performed with maximum annual water level at Xiangtun station from the year of 1956 to 2005 to create 25 periodic functions. After filtering by stepwise regression factor method employed by SPSS software, the final 10 periodic functions were selected as the impact factors to predict and establish the optimal regression equation. The results showed that the model had a high precision to predict and simulate the non-extreme value. The result of extreme values had significantly improved compared with other models, however, which were still attributed to the main source of error.

Key concepts: Regression analysis, Statistics, Regression, Stepwise regression, Mathematics, Function (biology), Water level, Extreme value theory

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