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2008•Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and EconomicsRequires access

The Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth in China——Cointegration Analysis and Short-run and Long-run Causality Testing

Gong Zhan-kui

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Abstract

A cointegrati0n analysis of China's import,export and GDP reveals that there is a cointegration relationship between the three variables,which,however,cannot be restricted to the long-run relationship between GDP and total trade or net export.Granger causality testing shows that increase in both import and export is the Granger cause of GDP growth,but that GDP growth is not that of the former.Long-run causality testing reveals that there is a two-way causality relationship between GDP and export and between import and export,and that GDP has a one-way causality relationship with import.

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A cointegrati0n analysis of China's import,export and GDP reveals that there is a cointegration relationship between the three variables,which,however,cannot be restricted to the long-run relationship between GDP and total trade or net export.Granger causality testing shows that increase in both import and export is the Granger cause of GDP growth,but that GDP growth is not that of the former.Long-run causality testing reveals that there is a two-way causality relationship between GDP and export and between import and export,and that GDP has a one-way causality relationship with import.

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Available abstract

A cointegrati0n analysis of China's import,export and GDP reveals that there is a cointegration relationship between the three variables,which,however,cannot be restricted to the long-run relationship between GDP and total trade or net export.Granger causality testing shows that increase in both import and export is the Granger cause of GDP growth,but that GDP growth is not that of the former.Long-run causality testing reveals that there is a two-way causality relationship between GDP and export and between import and export,and that GDP has a one-way causality relationship with import.

Key concepts: Cointegration, Granger causality, Economics, Causality (physics), China, Short run, Real gross domestic product, Monetary economics

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