Eco-environmental Evolution and Stability of Qinghai Lake

Based on the general analysis of long-series hydrological simulation,the key elements of ecological stability were analyzed,and the water level variation was predicted based on stochastic model.This study proposes that the average annual water shortage of Qinghai Lake is 331 million m3,and 519 million m3 in the past 10 years when the temperature range is compared larger.The Qinghai Lake Luoli carp is the key species for keeping the ecological stability,and salinity is the key environmental factor to influence Qinghai Lake Luoli carp's growth.The salinity threshold is 16.8‰,and the water level threshold of Qinghai Lake is 3 190.25 m.In order to explain the downward trend of water level in the future and its impacts on the ecology of Qinghai Lake,considering the impact of climate change,the extent of water level in Qinghai Lake remains decreasing in the coming 30 years and the lowest water level period in the coming 50 years is 2030 with the level of 3 191.35 m.Then the water level starts to raise stable.Under the conditions of historical average temperatures,the decreasing rate of water level began to slow to a steady state at 3 192.2 m in 2100.The two prediction results show that the water level is beyond the water level threshold and Qinghai Lake ecosystem will remain stable.