Variation of temperature and precipitation in recent 44 years in the oases in Manas River Basin

In this paper,the series of annual temperature and precipitation in the oases in Manas River Basin,Xinjiang,China,were developed using the monthly data from 5 meteorological stations in the oases in Manas River Basin during the period of 1964~2007.The basic features of climate change were analyzed using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall statistic,MGF,et a1.The main results were as follows:(1) Temperature and precipitation were both increased significantly.The annual temperature and precipitation in the area were increasing at the trends rate of 0.47℃/10 and 13mm/10a respectively.The warm-dry and warm-wet were emerged by turns since the signal that the weather became warm and wet in 1978.(2)The change of air temperature and precipitation showed seasonal difference obviously.The air temperature in summer from 1960s had increased constantly,and the increasing of temperature in autumn had contributed tremendously the most to the annual average value.Precipitation in winter had increased continually;the max of anomaly percentage was 48.57% in winter in early in the 21th century.(3) The temperature changed abruptly in 1990 and the precipitation had not significantly changed in these 44 years with the Mann-Kendall test.(4)The predicted amount of temperature and precipitation from the established MGF model indicated that there is an upward trend of the annual temperature and the decline of precipitation in 2008~2012.