Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Quantile Regression

Soybean is an important crop,and an important source of oil,so it plays an important role in China national economy. Due to a variety of factors,the price of soybean shows random and irregular volatility,which influencing economic benefit of soybean industry. In the paper,domestic soybean was analyzed on the basis of qualitative method from 3 aspects of supplying,demanding and macroeconomic. A quantile regression model for soybean price in China was proposed and every factor's effect on prices of soybean under different quantile weights was analyzed. The result showed that world's soybean production,Chinese consumer confidence index and China money supply were the main influencing factors. Domestic soybean price was negatively correlated to world's soybean production and positively correlated to Chinese consumer confidence indes and China money supply. Meanwhile,some suggestions to promote the healthy development of soybean industry in China were put forward according to the former model.