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The Analysis and Prediction of RMB Exchange Rate Based on Markov Chain

Mingfeng Cheng

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Abstract

Based on the 50 weekly data of RMB Exchange Rate from May 25th,to May 25th,2007,this paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristic of the RMB Exchange Rate and predicted its trend by building a Markov chain model.The conclusion is that RMB Exchange Rate will maintain relatively stationary in short time,which will rise slightly in the long run.

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What this paper is about

Based on the 50 weekly data of RMB Exchange Rate from May 25th,to May 25th,2007,this paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristic of the RMB Exchange Rate and predicted its trend by building a Markov chain model.The conclusion is that RMB Exchange Rate will maintain relatively stationary in short time,which will rise slightly in the long run.

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Available abstract

Based on the 50 weekly data of RMB Exchange Rate from May 25th,to May 25th,2007,this paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristic of the RMB Exchange Rate and predicted its trend by building a Markov chain model.The conclusion is that RMB Exchange Rate will maintain relatively stationary in short time,which will rise slightly in the long run.

Key concepts: Renminbi, Markov chain, Exchange rate, Econometrics, Economics, Statistics, Mathematics, Monetary economics

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