Land Use and Land Cover Change and the Tendency Forecast of Markov Process Based on RS and GIS——A Case Study in Nan'an District,Chongqing City

With the rapid economic development of Nan'an District of Chongqing in recent years,there is a certain land use issues.We hope to provide a powerful tool for reasonable planning,management and use land through its land use and land cover change research.According to three periods of the remote sensing data in 1993,2001,2007 of Nan'an District,with the help of RS and GIS,we analyze the dynamic degree change,conversion change and driving force of the land use and land cover types in this district from 1993 to 2007.A primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of the land use and land cover patterns are defined.Change tendency of the land use and land cover change from 2012 to 2024 is forecasted with application of Markov process model.The results show that the increasement of urban construction land is mainly converted from arable land and woodland within these fourteen years,as well as conversion among parts of waters.The rapid economic development is the main driving force leading to the change of the land use and land cover types in the Nan'an District.In addition,the city planning carried out by the government in the urban development also plays an important role in the land use change.The forecast indicates that with constant interference in the existing circumstances,the land use and land cover types of Nan'an District from 2012 to 2024 will present a trend that the area of arable land,woodland and unused land will decrease gradually,while the area of waters and urban construction land will continue to increase day by day.In order to realize the sustainable use of the land resources in Nan'an District,we must take measures to protect arable land and woodland and strengthen the management of urban construction land.