The discussion of the early forecasting of cyanobacteria bloom in the Lake Taihu based on ELCOM-CAEDYM model

An ecological dynamic model for cyanobacteria bloom in Taihu Lake was structwed based on the theory of four phases of cyanobacteria bloom and the coupling model of ELCOM-CAEDYM developed by Centre for Water Research,University of Western Australia.The cyanobacteria bloom development was modeled and the possibility for early forecast of cyanobacteria bloom in Taihu Lake was discussed.The model outputs met well with the cyanobacteria biomass in a large temporal scale covering the phases of anabiosis,growth and upfloat.The differences between modeled data and field-determined(or surveyed) ones varied in the range 1.0%～70.4% with a mean of 28.0%.The differences between modeled data and the inferred ones from MODIS satellite imagery varied in the range 3.8%～83.9% with a mean of 40.5%.However,the model outputs weakly reflected the cyanobacteria biomass in the phase of overwintering,the differences ranged from 3.0% to 143.6% with a mean of 40.1% between modeling data and the field-determined ones,and from 9.7% to 118.4% with a mean of 48.8% between the modeled data and the inferred ones from MODIS satellite imagery.The simulation of cyanobacteria overwintering need to be improved to better serve the early forecast of cyanobacteria bloom.