Urban oasis environmental carrying capacity analysis and prediction of atmospheric arid zone——A case of Urumqi City

In this paper,takes SO2,NO2,PM10 in atmospheric environment of Urumqi City as study object to research the environmental carrying capacity.The environmental carrying capacity index and its influencing factors of Urumqi are discussed by using oak ridge air quality index(ORAQI)model,environmental carrying capacity index and gray forecasting models GM(1,1),respectively.The predictive model is proposed,and the predictive values of the atmospheric environment carrying capacity index from2013 to 2020are obtained based on this model.The results show that the major air pollutants are SO2 and PM10in Urumqi City during 2001 to 2012,which is the typical characteristic of coal-burning pollution.The average atmospheric environment quality ORAQI index is 91,which means that the atmospheric environment is bad rating.The average atmospheric environment quality index is 16.21,which means that the atmospheric environment is in the middle load level.The forecast results show that the environmental carrying capacity index is rising year by year,which will reaches 19.86 in 2020at high load rating.This indicate that the carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment will been increased,and the quality of atmospheric environment will be further improved.