Multi-scale analysis and grey analysis of grain production in Gansu Province

Gansu Province(92°13' ~ 108°46'E,32°31' ~ 42°57'N) which located in the northwest of China is one of the great bases of commercial foodstuff.The paper explores the impacts that affect the regional grain production,by choosing socio-economic statistics from 1949 to 2011,based on the time analysis and space analysis to the grain dynamic changes in 63 years.After that,Gray System model was established depending on the data of 11 variables about grain production of Gansu Province in the past 63 years since Reform and Opening Up of China.The research show as follows:(1) from 1949 to 2011,the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Gansu Province mainly performed in third aspects.First and foremost,it displayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations in grain production in recent years has slowed down;Besides,the curve line of total grain production,the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yield per unit area are basically alike.Last but not means the least,there are such as 23 a,15 a and 9 a typical oscillation in grain production variation in Gansu Province on a time scale of 63 years since the founding of our motherland,particularly,the 23 a and 15 a oscillation dominated.Concretely speaking,the province's total grain output increased from 206 million tons in 1949to 1 014.6 million tons in 2011.In addition,the average annual growth rate of 2.6%per capita food increased from212.71 kg in 1949 to 2 777.52kg in 2011 and the average annual growth rate of 1.01%,what is more,the average annual growth rate of 2.47%grain yields from 612.43 in 1949 to 2 777.52 kilogram per hectare in 2011.(2) Per capita food production and space distribution of the average annual growth rate differences are significant in 14 areas of Gansu Province.(3) The three main drivers of food production are per area corps production,farmer resource and effective irrigation area.In detailed,the correlation coefficients of food productions to per area corps production,farmer resource,effective irrigation area are as high as 0.992,0.998 and 0.986.