Scenario Design and Evaluation for Wetland Resources Conservation and Development in Yancheng Coastal Wetland

Scenario research method,as an assistant decision-making instrument,is often used in practice for coordinating conservation and development,and also for regional and environmental management and planning on the goal of sustainable development. This opinion was also proved by the applications of scenario analysis method on land use,landscape,wetland,etc. The Yancheng coastal wetland,where the wetland ecological and biodi-versity conservation are of global significance,and the conflict between wetland conservation and development is of prominent,was taken as a case study. In this paper,with comprehensively considering the landscape suitabili-ty,the evolution character of wetland development and conservation,the qualification of wetland development for agriculture,the request for wetland protection,and the habitat change way helping for conservation,the scenario analysis method of bottom up ,and Landscape Suitability Evaluation Model,and GIS RS technique were employed to design and model three scenarios ( conservation scenario,agricultural development scenario and balance mode scenario) for the wetland development and conservation of Yancheng coastal wetland. How to assess and compare the scenario schemes of coordinating conservation and development purpose for wetland resources use,was discussed in the case study by the method and indicators of the cost benefit analysis ( CBA) ,ecological-economic value,willingness to pay for wetland conservation( WTP) and willingness to accept for wetland development( WTA). And the results proved that the conservation scenario was the optimal choice when considering the net-benefit factor,but it only achieved the protection objectives; the balance scenario was the optimal choice when considering factors of WTP WTA,which was better to achieve the both sides of protection and development. It's implied that a suitable scheme for balancing the wetland conservation and development will be possible by the scenario analysis method. And the scenario method can provide an alternative approach and pathway for wetland wise use and ecological-environmental protection.