The Changes of Land Use and Landscape Pattern Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model —A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region as an example,firstly,the best analysis grid size which is 100m is determined.Secondly,using the methods such as Markov transition matrix and landscape pattern indices and so on,land use change,land type transformation,landscape patterns characteristics and land use impact factors are analyzed in the study area.Then,Logistic-CA-Markov coupled model is applied to the quantitative prediction and spatial simulation on the trend of land use change under three different scenarios.The results showed that,① On the landscape level,the overall degree of landscape fragmentation in the study area is increasing,which is exacerbated by human activities.On the patch type level,urban areas are continuous expanding,and farmland,grassland and woodland are dominant types in the study area,and the degree of fragmentation of cultivated land and water are significantly increased.② During 1985 to 2000,the cultivated land is the main source of land transfer,which is mainly converted to the residents and urban land,mining land,water and forest.In addition,residents and urban land and mining land mainly come from the cultivated land,grassland and woodland.③ The distribution of each land type is related to many factors,moreover,the common one is the distance to the original land use type.④ According to the scenario 1 of land use changes simulating,the cultivated land,woodland,grassland and unused land reduce in varying degrees from 1985 to 2030;on the contrary,urban and residential land and mining land and water increase significantly,which indicate that significantly speeding up of the urbanization process.The construction land is constantly expanding around the original one,and taking up a lot of farmland and other non-agricultural construction.