Forecasting Arable Land in Mid and Long Run under the Background of Urbanization in China

The paper analyzed current situation of arable land resource change in China,forecasted the change of arable land in China at mid and long run by applying population-arable land model,and forecasted constructional land expansions and related arable land loss through modeling.It also forecasted the changes of detailed arable land conversion categories.Major conclusions are: arable land decline in China is faster in short and mid run,slower in the long run,quantity of constructional land expansion and arable land loss is determined by the growth of total population and the progress of urbanization,arable land loss caused by constructional land expansion will be the major arable land loss item.The author advocates to compose and strictly apply arable land census and management regulations,to enhance urban land use efficiency and suburban agricultural land productivity,to raise the arable land quality level,to fortify sustainable development plan,so as to realize reasonable utilization of land resources.