2008Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics UniversityRequires access

Measure of Dynamic Risk and the Optimal Portfolio Selection

Jiang Cui-xia

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Abstract

In current financial risk management practice,value at risk(VaR) and conditional value at risk(CVaR) are the most popular risk measures.This paper extends the static VaR and CVaR to the dynamic ones through time-varying volatility modeled by general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH) model.Under normal distribution assumption,the authors discuss the calculation of dynamic VaR and CVaR through multivariate GARCH model.Based on the dynamic measure of risk,the dynamic framework for optimal portfolio selection is proposed and solved by the dynamic programming methods.In particular,the authors focus on the portfolio which yields a portfolio of the minimum variance,VaR or CVaR at every day.Finally,empirical applications are applied into international stock markets.

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What this paper is about

In current financial risk management practice,value at risk(VaR) and conditional value at risk(CVaR) are the most popular risk measures.This paper extends the static VaR and CVaR to the dynamic ones through time-varying volatility modeled by general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH) model.Under normal distribution assumption,the authors discuss the calculation of dynamic VaR and CVaR through multivariate GARCH model.Based on the dynamic measure of risk,the dynamic framework for optimal portfolio selection is proposed and solved by the dynamic programming methods.In particular,the authors focus on the portfolio which yields a portfolio of the minimum variance,VaR or CVaR at every day.Finally,empirical applications are applied into international stock markets.

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Available abstract

In current financial risk management practice,value at risk(VaR) and conditional value at risk(CVaR) are the most popular risk measures.This paper extends the static VaR and CVaR to the dynamic ones through time-varying volatility modeled by general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH) model.Under normal distribution assumption,the authors discuss the calculation of dynamic VaR and CVaR through multivariate GARCH model.Based on the dynamic measure of risk,the dynamic framework for optimal portfolio selection is proposed and solved by the dynamic programming methods.In particular,the authors focus on the portfolio which yields a portfolio of the minimum variance,VaR or CVaR at every day.Finally,empirical applications are applied into international stock markets.

Key concepts: CVAR, Expected shortfall, Portfolio optimization, Econometrics, Value at risk, Portfolio, Risk measure, Economics

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