Influencing factors and development trends of urban rail transit passenger flow

In order to improve the current low prediction accuracy of urban rail transit passenger flow,this paper analyzed the influencing factors and growth law related to the urban rail transit passenger flow and provided judgment basis for the rational urban rail transit passenger prediction of big cities in our nation.This paper specifically analyzed the influencing mechanism and influencing extent of land use along lines,traffic convergence,urban rail transit service level,and fare policy change on urban rail transit passenger flow.The passenger flow growth trend statistical analysis of some typical lines and networks at home and abroad was conducted.The results indicate that the single line passenger flow has a slow developing process at first,and especially the first line passenger flow developing time is longer but after the developing process,the passenger flow will grow quickly;the rail network effect is significant,because the operation of the new intersecting line will make passenger flow of original lines grow quickly and can also increase the new line passenger flow starting point;the network passenger flow grows steadily and the passenger flow may fluctuate in short time.3 tabs,7 figs,10 refs.