A Prediction Method of Regional Passenger Transport Energy Consumption

To evaluate energy-saving potential and explore the paths of low-carbon development of the transportation industry in a region,it is necessary to predict time point of transportation energy consumption in the future.Prediction method of regional passenger transport energy consumption was studied.In the calculation process,regional passenger turnover and unit energy consumption of transport means were the key data.A simple standard top-down model was built to predict regional passenger turnover,while in calculating energy consumption of transport means per unit,it was important to consider ratio of different fuels in one transport means and obtain energy consumption of each means per unit in mode of linear composite,based on which the regional passenger transport energy consumption could be calculated.Example of predicting the passenger energy consumption of Sino-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City in 2020 was taken to illustrate the calculating process,which showed that total passenger transportation energy consumption was about 52,700 tons of standard coal.