An Empirical Study of the Trade Impact Effect of the Eastern Enlargement of European Union——Based on the Panel Data Test of Gravity Model

The eastern enlargement of EU has big trade impact,including trade diversion and trade creation effects.The eastern enlargement of EU has large impact on the trade relationship between EU and China.Gravity model and panel date is used to research the trade flow between EU and China,and other main trade partners.The results shows:the eastern enlargement of EU does have trade creation effects;because of the trade diversion effects of eastern enlargement of EU,the trade flow between EU members and non- EU members declines;the eastern enlargement of EU promote the trade flow between the old members of EU;the eastern enlargement of EU promote the trade flow between the old members and the new members of EU very much;the eastern enlargement of EU promote the trade flow between the new members of EU the most;the eastern enlargement of EU promote the trade flow between the old members and non-members of EU;the eastern enlargement of EU promote the trade flow between the new members and nonmembers of EU very much;but the trade diversion effects of eastern enlargement of EU to China is not very obvious.At last,we put forward some suggestions for promote the trade relationship between China and EU.