Analysis of climatic change and their impacts on agriculture of Atux City in Xinjiang

Based on the statistics of temperature and precipitation from 1960～2006 in Atux meteorological station,this paper analyzed the annual and seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation in Atux City by employing the methods of regression analysis and trend line analysis.The results indicate that:(1) During the last 47 years,the temperature of the study area shows a trend of increasing,and the increasing rate was 0.13℃/10a.From the 1960s～1970s,the temperature in the study area was undulating around the average value and meanwhile decreased slightly.However,from 1970s,it showed larger undulation and increased significantly and kept the same trend with that of the Northwest China.The change of temperature in a year showed seasonal disparities and it had a tendency of increasing in winter,autumn and spring,and decreasing in summer.Among them the temperature changes in winter and spring had more contribution to the annual average temperature change.(2) During the last 47 years,the precipitation of the study area had a trend of increasing,and the average increasing rate was 9.38 mm/10a.This result kept the same trend with that of the Northwest China,too.From the beginning of 1960s to the end of 1970s,the precipitation in the study area was undulating around the average value and hadn't made any significant change.But from 1980s,it showed a larger undulation and the changing trend of wet and dry was distinct.The change of precipitation in a year showed significant seasonal disparities,in which summer had the largest increasing rate,followed by spring,autumn and winter.Among them the increase of the precipitation in summer and spring had more contribution to the annual average precipitation change,while it was smaller in autumn and winter.(3) The climatic warming in the study area is obviously good to the growth of the over winter crops and also to the growth of high temperature crops in its entire fertility period.But in the meanwhile,because the climatic warming would cause soil drought and increase of plant diseases and insect pests,it's not good to the growth of other kinds of crops.