Discussion on risk prediction for single landslide

Landslide risk prediction becomes a very important part in the research of landslide hazard now.Although most professionals have spent much time on it for government decision-making,the researches mostly focus on regional risk prediction but not on single landslide.Farm Technique School landslide in Wanzhou District of Chongqing City is discussed as a study case in this paper.and the method of single landslide risk prediction is explored.It is suggested that the method of Monte-Carlo can be used to predict the failure probability of the single landslide,and the range of influence and sliding distance can be determined by some method discussed in the paper.The vulnerability of the element to be destroyed can be obtained according to the characteristics of the element and the distance relative to landslide.Using the technique of GIS and considering the dynamic changes of water level,the risk is quantitatively predicted.It is concluded that the passible maximum economic loss for the case with 145 m water level and rainstorm occurring once every 50 years will be 102.6 million RMB and for the scenario with maximum landslide hazard,the disaster risk is not necessarily be maximum.The results give a reference to landslide disaster prevention and control and land planning of government.