THE PREDICTION OF AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION DEVELOPMENT IN GANSU PROVINCE

By applying the prediction methods of time-order analysis and the gray system theory, the prediction models of main agricultural machinery development, of gross output value of plant products industry and of major agricultural production factors in Gansu Province were built and their prediction from 2000 to 2010 was made based on the data of statistics from 1990 to 1999 and combined with qualitative analysis. Then the mechanization profit portion in plant products industry in the province was estimated and analyzed quantitatively by the method of Cobb-Dauglas production function. The result shows that the total motive force, original cost and overwhelming small type tractors and their matching farm implements of agriculatural machinery will be developed greatly and the mechanization profit portion in plant products industry will reach 35.87% approximately.