Assessment and analysis of aviation safety based on the organization factors

The present article is aimed at introducing the authors' new approach to assessment and analysis of aviation safety based on the organization factors instead of the used human factor only approach. As is known, human factor used to be the key factor in searching for the causes leading to aviation accidents. However, it proves neither practical nor scientific. Professor James Reason proposed a more practical view, known as Reason model, by stressing the organizational factor. Starting from his idea, we began to search for more comprehensive factors that are likely to cause such accidents. Here is the of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) suggested by present authors, which is by nature a mathematical simulation model which can be applied to analyze and assess such accidents. The so-called simulation of AHP helps us to classify and weigh the factors involving an accident. And, then, from the consequence of an accident, it is possible to categorize and arrange all the factors involved into chains and orders. Among the key factors that may lead to an air accident, the first three factors stand as the key ones, that is, the aircraft crew, the weather and the company management. The primary application of the proves that it is practical and in conformity with the statistical data from the practical analysis and assessment of the case studies. At the same time, suggestions and recommendations are also made on how to make the detailed analysis of each factor in order to improve the aviation safety. For example, as to the airliner-crew factor, it is recommended to use the “PACE method and establish a human error database to collect the data and information on the errors that are likely to cause actual accidents. As for the weather factor, which is in some cases of special importance to aviation safety, advice is stressed to improve the weather-controlling devices and weather forecasting reminding conscientiously as timely as it can. As far as the company management factor is concerned, proposal is made to take the Sweden airways for reference, such as the early assessment, confidential and punishment-free reporting system as well as the safety auditing system. The preliminary application of the new has shown that the aviation accidents can be effectively reduced and even avoided to some extent in the future.